It’s Lucky Friday the 13th!

 

Today marked the last time Finnair flight 666 departed Copenhagen, Denmark for HEL.

HEL is not where evil sinners are tormented for eternity, but the three-letter code for the airport in Helsinki, Finland. The airline has flown flight 666—traditionally the Devil’s number—21 times on Friday the 13th, but is retiring the flight number.

Fortunately for the passengers, the pilot wasn’t deterred by the ominous symbolism. “I’m not a superstitious man,” he said. “It’s only a coincidence for me.”

He could well have been talking about investors, too, because Friday the 13th looked like just another lucky day in a bull market that looks as if it will never end.

It’s almost getting tiresome to write, but the Nasdaq Composite index closed at yet another new all-time high, just above 6,600. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial closed just below their record closing highs, and the Dow is within one-half of a percentage point of 23,000.

What could give this market the evil eye?

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Peak Economy, Peak Markets?

 

The headline number of the September jobs report was bad, but the rest was very strong.

The report, released Friday, showed the U.S. economy lost 33,000 jobs last month, way below the consensus and what we’ve seen much of this year.

Although the Bureau of Labor Statistics said it couldn’t quantify the overall impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, which pulverized Texas and Florida, it did say the two storms likely led to the loss of 105,000 jobs in restaurants, which have been stellar job creators. (The BLS also revised down July’s and August’s new jobs by 38,000, making those two months before the hurricanes look less robust.)

But there was plenty of good news to feast on, too.

First, the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, its lowest since January 2001. (The nearly half-century low of 3.8% was in April 2000.)  The jobless rate for all adults fell under 4%.

Second, labor force participation rose 0.2% to 63.1%, its highest since March 2014, as 575,000 new people entered the workforce last month.

Finally, wages grew at an annual rate of 2.9%, tying last December for the post-recession best.

Sounds like it’s about as good as it gets. So, what’s the problem?

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Tax Reform Is Here, But Will Investors Cheer?

 

On Wednesday Republican congressional leaders unveiled the outlines of their much-anticipated tax reform plan, and President Trump touted its virtues.

While short on details, the plan’s key provisions are:

  • Reduce the statutory corporate tax rate to 20%, from 35%.
  • Cut the number of individual tax brackets from seven to three–12%, 25%, and 35%– and maybe include another one for higher-income taxpayers.
  • Eliminate the estate tax and alternative minimum tax, a potential windfall for big earners.
  • Double the standard deduction and eliminate certain deductions, especially deductions for state and local taxes.

Some Republicans were quick to say the tax cuts would “pay for themselves” through faster economic growth, but nobody except a few supply-side fanatics believes that anymore. The nonpartisan Tax Policy Center estimated the plan would cost the Treasury $2.4 trillion over the next decade. “All income groups would see their average taxes fall,” the group declared, “but…those with the highest incomes would receive the biggest tax cuts.”

Well, surprise, surprise. And  now that investors have a clearer idea of what they’ll be getting after waiting so long, what will they do?

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The Market’s Temperature Rises, Too

 

After a cool late August and early September, it’s heating up on the East Coast, with daily temperatures in the 80s. And the market has been getting warmer, too.

On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite index all hit new all-time highs, and they traded at new intraday highs as I wrote this around noon Friday.

Two key lagging indexes—the Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Transportation index—have been on a tear of late, each gaining 5%  since late August.  Neither has regained its all-time high—and Dow Theory says the Transports would have to do that in order to confirm the DJIA’s own bull market—but they’re getting there.

I’m impressed by the strength of this rally, which is broad-based. It reflects rising confidence in the economy, which has been growing slightly faster this year, albeit well short of the 3% the Trump Administration is targeting.

It also shows investors’ weariness of the continuing stand-off with North Korea over its missile program; their belief the Federal Reserve may not raise interest rates for the rest of 2017, and their growing confidence that Congress will be able to pass some market-friendly form of tax reform.

To which I say: not so fast.

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With Risk Rising, Why Not Sell It All?

 

Over the past few weeks, I’ve expressed more and more concern about rising risks for the market.

I’ve been worried about North Korea’s rapidly advancing nuclear and missile program—and not just for the impact it might have on share prices—and I’m skeptical the current president has the political and diplomatic skills to deal with it.

I’ve also noted the busy legislative calendar in Washington, D.C., with a new budget, a potential government shutdown and possible clash over raising the debt limit on the horizon. (This week, President Trump made a surprise deal with Democratic Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi to extend the debt ceiling until December and throw in some aid for victims of Hurricane Harvey in Texas and Louisiana.)

Meanwhile, Wall Street seems mesmerized by the prospect of tax reform, which looks extremely unlikely this year.

We laid out the whole case in a special alert to paid subscribers last week, which recommended specific actions.

But if risk is rising, why stay in the market at all?

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Special Subscriber Alert: Time to Reduce Risk

The stock market is living in a dream world.

Traders and money managers, focusing exclusively on higher earnings and relatively benign monetary policy, are ignoring sky-high valuations, narrowing market breadth, and an economy that’s showing underlying weakness in housing and auto sales and signs of real strain in consumer finances.

They’re also blithely accepting that pro-business tax reform is right around the corner—despite the manifest political difficulties of achieving that—and ignoring the upcoming Washington, DC trifecta of passing a budget, preventing a government shutdown and raising the debt ceiling, none of which is in the bag by any means.

And they’ve been in deep denial about how serious the problem with North Korea is, brushing off the missile test over Hokkaido island, in Japanese air space. The United States is bound by treaty to defend Japan, a core Pacific ally for more than 70 years.

And most of all, they’re in denial about the ability of the current president, Donald J. Trump, to deal with these potential crises, which could reach a crescendo in the fall. I would say, in fact, that traders and investors are so invested in the wishful thinking that tax reform will bring great profits to Wall Street and corporate America, that they are as delusional about this president as his most hardcore supporters.

But at GoldenEgg Investing®, we try to take a more clear-eyed view of these things, and here’s what we think:

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Trump Risk Is Rising

 

For the last few weeks, in my MarketWatch column and GoldenEgg Investing®, I’ve been laying out why the risk of a stock market correction is rising.

It boils down to an overvalued market that’s overdue for a pullback and some key technical signs that have started to flash yellow. You can read my whole case here and here.

But another factor is getting more and more important: the erratic behavior of the president of the United States.

Markets generally don’t trade on politics; stocks thrived under presidents as diverse as Lyndon B. Johnson, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton. They did well in the early years of the George W. Bush administration only to tank later. They slumped in the first two months of the Obama presidency but then started a long bull market that has lasted until today despite tepid economic growth.

Truth is, stocks generally trade on interest rates and earnings growth. Period. Geopolitical crises may prompt panic selling, but stocks almost always wind up higher 12 months later. Investors usually don’t give a damn who’s in the White House.

But though I hesitate to write these words, this time may be different.

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Let the Correction Begin!

 

Is this the start of a late summer sell-off ?

On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 22,000 again, apparently recovering from a brief decline amid heightened tensions over North Korea’s missile program. If fear of nuclear war couldn’t derail stocks, what could?

Apparently white supremacists and neo-Nazis in Charlottesville, Va.

President Trump’s fevered, contradictory response to the violence in that university town over the proposed removal of a statue of Confederate General Robert E. Lee prompted an exodus of high-profile CEOs from two of the president’s symbolic economic councils and then the collapse of those bodies.

Suddenly Wall Street started worrying that some of the “grown-ups” in the administration, particularly Gary Cohn, director of the National Economic Council and former president of Goldman Sachs, were preparing to bail. Wall Street views Cohn as the linchpin of the administration’s efforts to get tax reform and other goodies for the business community.

The Dow tumbled 274 points on Thursday and was off another 50 points as I wrote this Friday morning.

But there was lots more to this decline than toxic racial politics.

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Where the Jobs Really Are

 

Another month, another strong jobs report.

On Friday, the Labor Department reported the economy added 209,000 new jobs in July, the second consecutive month of job growth above 200,000. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3%.

The report confirmed what most of us already knew: The U.S. economy is mostly in very good shape. True, workforce participation remains depressed and wage gains are subdued (both for structural reasons, I’d argue), but the good second-quarter GDP number (2.6%) and the last two jobs reports suggest growth may be picking up.

If this continues, even with 2.5% wage growth, I think the Federal Reserve will hike the federal funds rate at least once more this year, though traders currently aren’t expecting it.

Gradual rate increases, accelerating economic growth and solid corporate earnings are all good news for stocks, which is why, though a correction is long overdue, I expect the market to keep moving higher over time.

But I’d like to step back from the weekly market madness to take a closer look at what’s really happening in the job market.

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A Big Warning Sign for Stocks

 

While many of the market’s hottest stocks just keep going and major market indexes this week scored record highs—again—the bears have planted a big red flag.

On Thursday the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at an all-time high just shy of 21,800. The day before, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index hit its record close near 2,480, and the Nasdaq Composite index reached its closing peak of 6,422.75.

Bang-up sales and earnings from FAANG stars Facebook and Netflix propelled those stocks to new all-time highs. Alphabet, parent company of Google, and Amazon had sharply lower second-quarter results, wiping out the brief ascent of Jeff Bezos, who owns 17% of Amazon’s outstanding shares, past Bill Gates on the Forbes list of the world’s wealthiest people, with a net worth of over $90 billion. Nice work if you can get it.

I’ve written recently that the FAANG stocks are ripe for profit taking or correction. These are great, disruptive businesses, but investors have piled into these shares and they now trade at hefty, if not nosebleed, valuations. Even trees don’t grow to the sky.

Yet the market may have a bigger problem than the FAANGs.

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