Some Green Shoots of Spring Appear

 

Spring came late this year in the Northeast as a late March blizzard threw off the normal seasonal rhythms. But now the trees are green, the flowers are blooming, and allergy sufferers—of whom there are several at home—are downright miserable.

The economy, too, has gone through a long winter. But with Friday’s jobs report, well, spring may have sprung.

Employers added 211,000 new jobs in April, well above consensus estimates of 185,000 and more than 2 ½ times March’s revised figures of 79,000 new jobs added. It marks the third out of the first four months this year in which job growth topped 200,000. Average job growth over the past three months was 174,000, pretty much in line with last year.

Even more impressive, the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, the lowest it’s been in a decade, since before the financial crisis. That was as low as it got in the last economic cycle, so if this isn’t full employment, what is?

I can see at least two possible outcomes here.

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